Three pictures of how Linz might look in 10 to 20 years if AI and robotics take over a large part of today’s work. Not forecasts, but thinking tools: how would we notice which picture we are living in – and what can we do today?
A · Breakdown
Technology moves faster than society.
Assumptions
Automation arrives fast, gains stay with a few, politics reacts late.
What Linz looks like
Commuter jobs disappear, unemployment rises, the wage bill shrinks – and with it the local payroll tax. The city has to cut where it should invest. Trust in institutions suffers.
How we would notice
Unemployment in the Linz district rises clearly for several years in a row. Local payroll tax falls despite inflation. Employment in the commercial economy drops sharply.
What Linz could do today
An early-warning system from labour-market and tax data. Make the budget’s dependence on wage-based levies transparent and calculate alternatives.
B · Transition
Less work, well distributed.
Assumptions
Automation arrives step by step; social partnership, retraining and shorter working hours cushion it.
What Linz looks like
Linz remains an industrial city, but with fewer and different jobs. Many work shorter hours, retrain more often, change jobs more easily. Work shifts towards care, education, crafts and technology.
How we would notice
Employment stays stable while average working hours fall. Further training grows. New job profiles emerge in companies and universities.
What Linz could do today
Pilot projects with shorter working hours in municipal companies. Education that combines work and learning. Businesses, universities and the city at one table.
C · Abundance
The machines work, the gains are shared.
Assumptions
Productivity gains are widely shared – through basic services, ownership stakes or a citizens’ dividend.
What Linz looks like
Housing, mobility, education and health are secured for everyone. Freed-up time flows into culture, community and the city. Freed-up space – car parks, access roads, office blocks – becomes living space.
How we would notice
Basic services are expanded, incomes depend less on wages. Volunteering and culture grow. Land is rezoned and unsealed.
What Linz could do today
Bold projects on municipal land. Examine models for citizens’ shares in gains from automation. Make Linz visible as a laboratory.